Writing on quantitative finance, AI, and whatever else I'm building.
In 1591 the Pope made betting on his own succession punishable by excommunication, and the objection was never that the odds were wrong. Five hundred years of people trying to unplug the only instrument that pays for the truth.
Cheap prediction-market contracts win far less often than their price says they will. 64,507 resolved contracts across Polymarket and Kalshi, and at prices you can actually trade it costs you more than half your money.